COMING SOON!!!

Exciting news for The Foreign Desk…..watch this space for an announcement in the very near future!!

EURO-NIMBY

Been busy moving for the last month...but now I am LIVE! from Europe!! If you've been checking in, I appreciate it. And now...on with the show!

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Now that the show in Guantanamo Bay is winding down, there is the tiny little problem of what to do with the cast.

There is no question that there are some seriously bad dudes there. And what we are going to do with them remains the $64,000 question. But amazingly enough, there are a group of guys down there, who have done nothing wrong. Yes, you heard that right. Nothing wrong. They are innocent.

Here's what happened. Imagine, you're camping in say…Afghanistan after 9/11. Maybe not the best vacation destination at that time, but hey, the tickets had been bought, the mail and the newspapers had been stopped, so you gotta go.

But around that time, everyone in a camp in Afghanistan is presumed to be Al-Qaeda. Next, some Afghan tribesman fingers you and your buddies, you get swept up by the US military and badda bing, you're wearing an orange jumpsuit in Cuba. Even worse, you didn't pack any SPF-15 or the latest James Patterson novel.

To make things even more interesting, you're Muslim AND Chinese. In other words, an Uighur. Now the Chinese consider a lot of the Uighurs terrorists because they want to have their own gig in Xinjiang province. But because China has been on a tear these last five or six years and the US economy depends on China, my theory is, as a favor to Beijing, the US government decides that the best thing may be to keep you on ice for a while. I have no proof of this. Just thinking out loud.

So now it's 7 years later. You're still innocent and the US government has run out of reasons to keep you in prison and you are going to get released. But that Guantanamo pedigree is a problem. It's like a bad review that follows you around. Nevertheless, the US government starts pulling in favors. And who do we go to for favors? Our European friends. Yes indeed. Attorney General Eric Holder was here in Germany last week trying fob off as many Uighurs as the Germans would take.

Chancellor Merkel says that the Germans have an obligation to take them in, thus helping President Obama shut down Gitmo. But other German politicians haven't read the fine print…you know where the US government has classified these guys as NOT A THREAT, and are up in arms about taking in terrorists. A classic case of NIMBY…Not In My Back Yard. So that's the big debate over here in Germany these days: Whether or not to admit innocent men into the country. Kafka must be smiling somewhere.

I have a better idea. Release them in Beverly Hills, where they can get an agent and a lawyer. The lawyer will sue everyone for false imprisonment and the agent will negotiate the book and movie deal. And then they retire to the French Riviera.

Not happy with Sarkozy

PARIS- Boy, they DO NOT like President Sarkozy here. He is, how shall I say? Reviled? Yeah. That would be close. They see him as looking out only for the rich. Kind of a French Margaret Thatcher. Or....a George Bush. If George Bush had any intellectual curiosity.

Why do they not like him? Well, the French are very set in their ways. And change comes slowly here if at all. They are of the opinion that if it ain't broken, why break it? And some things are sacrosanct. Like vacations. And short work weeks. And that for the most part, shops are closed on Sunday. Seems reasonable. President Sarkozy wants to change that.

So tomorrow, there is going to be a big protest march and a 24 hour transport strike. Why? Well, according to the IHT, the strikes are "aimed at pressing the government to support workers better during the economic crisis."

But if you talk to the folks on the street, it is also a protest against Sarkozy. They just don't like the guy.

You have to remember that France is really close to socialism. They would probably deny it, but what else can you call a country that has short work weeks, national health and a government that supports workers in every possible way. If it sounds like ze duck....

But if this is socialism, then the US needs to learn a few things. Life is good here.

There IS a Docteur in the house!

PARIS -- So, arrived in Paris a few days ago. Maybe more. Not sure, as I was SICKER THAN A DOG and have lost all concept of time. No kidding. Seriously sick. So sick I'm looking for the emergency room.

Luckily, our friends here say, "no problem, we'll call a Doctor and he will come to you."

Pause. OK, long pause while our tiny American brains try to understand the simple sentence, "he will come to you." You know how a dog tilts its head when it doesn't understand something? That was us.

"What," we said.... "like...a...house call?"Imagine that. A Doctor? Actually coming to your house? The term house call stirred a distant memory. Maybe it was just a long lost Marcus Welby episode. We weren't sure. But we were about to witness something lost to the sands of time. A visit to your house by a doctor.

I realize this blog is mostly for political stuff, but you know what? Medical care is a political and a human right. And the Europeans take this sort of thing for granted.

Yes, Doctors still make house calls here. They actually come to see you where you live. Into your bedroom. Truly remarkable.

This is something that America needs to change. Doctors need to "get" the fact that they serve the sick and the needy, not just the rich and wealthy hypochondriacs. They need to get out of their offices, and go see how people actually live. I'm sure they will be able to prescribe a better treatment if they are able to see how people live.

There is something so basic and so natural about a Doctor making a house call. It's time that the American medical business get back to basics. And house calls are a great place to start.

Geithner Twitters from G20 Finance Conference in UK

#Nice flight on the way over. Had my own plane. Very cool being Treasury Secretary.
#Arrive at venue. Head over to welcome dinner. Unbelievable. It's a cash bar. Clearly Brits are trying to set the tone.
#Central Bank governors are drinking heavily. Not a good sign.
# Eastern Europeans buying lots of rounds. I get it, but doubt it will help.
#Getting ready for breakfast meeting. Still hung over from last night. Why do the English fry their tomatoes?
#Pretty solemn group for breakfast. Everyone subdued. Could use some bloody marys to lift spirits

Is it warm in here or is it just me?

LONDON - Not sure if you all were paying attention to what was being said at at the global conference on climate change in Copenhagen that just ended, but here is the statement they released:

"The climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived. Rapid, sustained and effective mitigation based on global and regional actions is required to avoid dangerous climate change."

Now I'll grant you that that doesn't really sound like a call to arms, but hey, they're scientists. They deal in facts, not hyperbole. But if you read a little deeper into the piece in Britain's Independent newspaper, there was a quote from Lord Stern that didn't pull any punches. He warned of:

"Extended conflict, social disruption, war essentially, over much of the world, for many decades."

War? Over much of the world? For many decades?

Sure. When the oceans rise we lose coastlines. People will have to move. Probably by the hundreds of millions. Into your neighborhood. Onto your street. Probably lead to a few arguments.

But again, this all abstract. I mean, how will it impact you personally? I know I will be deeply affected because there are golf courses in low lying areas of Florida and Hilton Head I will never get to play because of man's inability to change. And if that isn't a call to action, I don't know what is.

Yes, I'm kidding. Sort of.

But most interesting was how much coverage this conference received. Now, granted it is early Saturday morning here in London, but a Google News search for Copenhagen only brings up European/Asian newspapers, wire services and a few cable outfits. The whole first page has no hits for American newspapers other than the New York Times. None. And that can't be good.

Like I said, is it warm in here, or is it just me?

Silence!

Greetings from London.

I'm here ahead of the G20 conference scheduled for April 12th. The Finance Ministers are here for the weekend for a warm up event. I, of course, am looking for any kind of G20 swag, but so far, nothing. Not even a t-shirt sighting that says, "My Finance Minister went to the G20 conference in London and all he came away with was this lousy t-shirt."

Speaking of London...

Disturbing piece in the IHT this morning by Christopher Walker who is the Director of Studies at Freedom House.

It's a scary piece and you should read the whole thing. But you're busy, and clicking on the link is a lot of work, so here are the first four graphs to get you started.

How are a few extraordinarily wealthy individuals from the most senior ranks of the world's most brutally repressive societies succeeding in muzzling free speech on major international issues? The unlikely answer is, simply, by "visiting" London.

In a dangerous twist of globalization, these litigants are taking the illiberal standards of environments hostile to free expression and projecting them into those countries that permit free and open inquiry. And more disturbing is that the preferred tool they are using to stifle the work of investigative journalists, researchers and publishers is English law.

An increasing number of well-heeled litigants - libel tourists - are using England's plaintiff-friendly libel laws to silence critics. Unlike American law, which sets a high bar for libel lawsuits, English common law puts the burden of proof on the defendant, who can be hit with enormous damages and legal costs.

To make matters worse, English courts have demonstrated a tendency to accept jurisdiction in these cases even when the plaintiff's connection to England appears wafer-thin. As a result, London has earned the dubious distinction of "libel capital of the world."

See? I told you it was scary. Now go read the rest of it. Please.

And while I am on the subject of censorship or just about spreading information in general that might not be to someone's liking....here is another piece in the IHT, that should make you shake your head.

Parwez Kambakhsh, a student journalist in Afghanistan was sentenced to 20 years in prison for "blasphemy after accusations that he wrote and distributed an article about the role of women in Islam."

Hey, he got off easy. The first time they sentenced him to death! 20 years was the result after they appealed the death sentence to the Supreme Court!

And he says that he didn't write the piece, he just downloaded it from the Internet. That damn pesky Internet.

But wait...there's more. More? Yes. Tuesday night, Javed Ahmad, a journalist in Afghanistan for Canadian television was gunned down.

So is there a point to this dreary post? Yup. Journalism is a tough gig. Getting the truth out is getting harder every day. In London they silence you with wigs and lawyers, in the wilds of Afghanistan they use a Kalashnikov. Different approaches, same result.

What...? So, sue me.

Coincidence????

Let's see.... China starts a minor diplomatic row with the US Navy....to ....to......anyone? Bueller?

How about to draw media attention away from the 50th anniversary of the Dalai Lama leaving Tibet?

Ah you gotta love the subtlety. And it worked. While there is a lot of media stuff about Tibet today....there has been a lot more about the US Navy ship that has been harassed.

You know the folks at Burson-Marsteller are kvelling.

Tell me why I don't like Mondays

Good morning.

Where to begin? OK...let's start in the Middle East. The Saudis are kinky. I'm sorry, but that's the only way to describe the CNN story about the the woman who was sentenced to 40 lashes for 'mingling.' Yes, you read it correctly, she is going to be whipped for 'mingling.' But it gets better. Apparently the Religious Police entered a house and found a woman with two unrelated men. One of the men "told the policeman that he had the right to be there, because Sawadi had breast-fed him as a baby and was therefore considered to be a son to her." The religious police didn't buy this logic and thus the sentence. I wonder if there is leather involved?

Next up...China.

According to the BBC, the National People's Congress has heard Parliament Chief Wu Bangguo declare that China will never have a western style democracy. No way. Uh unh. Nyet. Nix. Nein. They are being particularly hard line these days because a couple of anniversaries are looming: the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen Square and the 50th anniversary of the riots in Tibet that forced the Dalai Lama into exile. Just a reminder that the Chinese, as the Clash so eloquently once said, are still and will always be "working on the clampdown."

Over in Europe...

The New York Times had an op-ed piece on Saturday about the sub prime issue in Eastern Europe. It's not a pretty read. But essentially, those Eastern European nations that I wrote about a last week are deeply in the hole, and looking for a bailout from their western European cousins. This is the one paragraph that stood out:

The debt crisis in Eastern Europe is much more than an economic problem. The wrenching decline in the standard of living caused by this crisis is provoking social unrest. American subprime borrowers who have had their houses foreclosed on are not — at least not yet — rioting in the streets. Workers in Eastern Europe are. The roots of democracy in the region are not deep and the specter of right-wing nationalism remains a threat. (emphasis in bold is mine)

Oh yeah. And it's just Monday. I wonder if that job as towel boy at the Marriott in Hawaii is still available.

The fix is in...maybe

So the tribunal to investigate the 2005 assassination of Lebanese President Rafik Hariri has finally gotten under way in the Netherlands. And golly gee wilikers, this should be interesting political theater.

Why you ask?

Well for one thing, it couldn't come at a worse time. Syria is slowly emerging from it's international isolation and starting to dialogue with the US. Unfortunately, the evidence seems to point to the involvement of Bashar al-Assad and his brother. This is not good. Why? Becasue we need them to keep a lid on Hezbollah and keep things calm in Lebanon and make nice noises toward Israel. So trying to arrest the President of Syria might be a tad awkward.

The Atlantic had a great piece in last December's issue by Joshua Hammer that reads like fiction, but it's not. I highly recomend you read it.

Here are a couple of highlights:

Since the summer of 2005, the Monteverde has been at the center of one of the world’s most sensitive criminal investigations. Inside, a team of about 200 people from nearly two dozen nations—forensics experts, DNA specialists, telecommunications analysts—has been sifting through evidence relating to the assassination of Hariri, one of the Middle East’s best-known and most influential politicians.

Though only preliminary, the report found “probable cause to believe that the decision to assassinate [Hariri] could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security officials.” The highest-ranking officials implicated were Asef Shawkhat (Assad’s brother-in-law and the head of Syria’s military intelligence department) and Maher al-Assad (Assad’s younger brother and the head of the presidential guard). Assad has continued to deny any Syrian role in Hariri’s killing.

That's not good.

...last March, King Abdullah II of Jordan was reported to be pushing for a deal with Assad—“the most astounding plea bargain of all time,” U.S. Senator Arlen Specter called it—that would grant the Syrian president immunity from prosecution in exchange for a pledge to rein in Hezbollah and Hamas.

Wheelin' and dealin' at the highest levels. Like I said, this is going to be an interesting show. There is a lot at stake. Will justice be served? Or will there be a wink and a nudge? Stay tuned.

Money Changes Everything

Oh sure. When the cold war ended and the Iron Curtain came down in 1989 and 1990, the countries that escaped the Soviet sphere of influence were greeted with open arms. "Oh yeah, come home to the EU.".... or...."Hey great to have you back!" or "Yeah, we're all one big family over here."

But a few weeks ago, a few of the econ types looked up from the staggering economic damage that was wreaking havoc on Western European economies and looked eastward. Suddenly everyone gulped. Well...they did more than gulp, but I am trying to maintain a sense of decorum here. It was one of those "uh oh" moments. They did a few quick calculations and figured out that if things were this bad in Western Europe, then things were really really bad further east.

How bad?

According to the Voice of America, "Hungary's Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany urged the European Union to show solidarity by establishing a support fund of about $240 billion to help failing economies in Eastern Europe." And when Angela Merkel heard that number, she passed milk through her nose. Because initially, they thought number might be somewhere around $30 billion.

Yes indeed, now everyone is pedaling backward so fast, they look like clowns on unicycles in the main ring at Ringling Brothers.

Mr. Ferenc warned that if the Western European countries didn't bail them out it would be like raising an "economic iron curtain." To which Sarkozy said, "Hey...you guys would do that? Really? Well OK. We'll give you the material to build it. Free. No kidding. I'll even send Carla Bruni in a bikini to cut the ribbon at the opening."

One big family indeed.

As Cyndi Lauper sang.... money changes everything.

The Mitchell-Holbrooke E-mails

As George Mitchell and Richard Holbrooke, two of America's preeminent statesmen go off to solve the problems of Israel/Palestine and Afghanistan, The Foreign Desk has stumbled upon some of their correspondence.

Dear Richard,

Thanks for the lift. Hope you made it into Bagram safely. Man, this jet lag is killing me. To say nothing of the hangover. Remind me not to play drinking games with you again. Did you get the phone number of the flight attendant? Cheers, George

Dear George,

We got in fine. And no I didn't get her phone number. They changed crews while I was talking to The President. You would not believe the security here. Haven't met Karzai yet, but hope to see him after I get some shut eye. Gotta go, something just blew up next door. Richard

Dear Richard,

Not much progess to report. Netanyahu is walking around with his hat in his hand trying to form a government. It's not pretty. Gaza is still a mess. Man, I am too old for this. And I'd kill for a ham and cheese sandwich. George

Dear George,

Everyone is stoned here. Seriously. There is hash EVERYWHERE. No wonder nothing gets done. Karzai still avoiding me. I think I'm gonna have to put everyone, -- Pakistanis and Afghans on a plane and bring 'em to Washington. And what the hell is Dennis Ross up to? Someone tell him this is my turf. Gotta go. They're evacutaing the hotel. Richard

The whole world is watching

I am back from various forms of the flu. Suffice it to say, it wasn't pretty.

So what's going on around this lovely little planet we call home?

According to the BBC about 70 students at Amir Kabir University in Tehran were arrested after clashing with the authorities who were re-burying the Iraq-Iran war dead on campus. Say what? Why on campus? Are the authorities trying to send a message? "Hey....it could be you students in these graves unless you shape up?" Seems a bit heavy handed to me, but that's the Ahmadinejad way.

Trouble in Russia? The Financial Times notes that President Medvedev accused Vladimir Putin's government yesterday of failing to act quickly to combat the economic crisis. Uh oh. All is not smiles and sunshine. If these guys start going at each other, it will make the mob wars of NY in the 1970's look like an Ivy league debating match.

Which leads into today's final bit about things coming apart.

An interesting read is Niall Ferguson's piece called "Axis of Upheaval" in the March/April Foreign Policy. In a nutshell he says that the axis of evil is not the real problem. What is really going to be a major problem is the economic crisis we are going through and how this crisis will create an "axis of upheaval" or in simpler terms, the recipe for violence and strife.

He says, "...three factors made the location and timing of lethal organized violence more or less predictable in the last century. The first factor was ethnic disintegration: Violence was worst in areas of mounting ethnic tension. The second factor was economic volatility: The greater the magnitude of economic shocks, the more likely conflict was. And the third factor was empires in decline: When structures of imperial rule crumbled, battles for political power were most bloody."

And who are the players? Somalia, Mexico, Russia, Pakistan, Indonesia ... and more. Suddenly that trip to Disneyland is looking a lot more attractive.

The Wackiest Ship in the Jihad

So, that Russian ship that's been anchored off Cyprus under high security has been searched and according to the Agence France Presse the Cypriot government has declared that it is not...repeat...NOT carrying arms. And because it is NOT carrying arms, they confiscated all 90 containers.

So why did they confiscate it? Because the Cypriots, according to Reuters, said the ship was loaded with "weapon related material."

Reuters went on to add that Iranian foreign spokesman Hassan Qashqavi told reporters at a news conference, "What they initially said, that it was weaponry and so on, it is not true." Well, yeah, technically, they aren't weapons till you put them together. And according to one unnamed source, the containers were all marked, "Some Assembly Required."

In any event, wherever it was headed, it is not headed there now. However, stay tuned, because you know there is another ship on the horizon.

About those arms.....

So it's "we said" versus "they said."

You see, there is this ship. A Russian freighter, flying a Cypriot flag, that sailed from Iran, headed for Syria. At least that is what was originally reported by CBS News.

That same CBS News report from late January, said that the ship was stopped by the US Navy, searched and released. "The United States did as much as we could do legally," (Admiral Mike) Mullen said, adding that he would like more authority to act in such cases. "We were not authorized to seize the weapons or do anything like that."

Cut to....this week, where the ship is now anchored off the port of Limassol in Cyprus under tight security. The Cypriot government has now searched the ship, and has asked the UN for guidance.

Yesterday, according to Reuters, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said there were no arms on the ship.

So you see the problem. The US Navy says there are arms on board the ship. The Israeli media says there are arms aboard the ship, the Iranians deny there are arms on the ship, the Cypriot government searched the ship but is not saying anything.

We said, they said.

The real issue is that it is time to really clamp down on arms shipments anywhere in the world. Whether real or imagined. I realized that this is a very pollyanna-ish view, but there is nothing wrong with saying that there are certain parts of the world that just don't need arms. Call me a dreamer, but it's harder to sit down and talk than it is to pull a trigger.

Meanwhile.....back in Cyprus...

So that Russian freighter supposedly carrying Iranian arms is still anchored of Cyprus under tight security. Reuters says that the Iranians deny there are arms on board. The BBC says that, "on Tuesday Cypriot Foreign Minister Marcos Kyprianou said a UN committee ruled that the Monchegorsk was in "clear" breach of UN sanctions, but he did not specify what had been found on board." OK. No one really knows. Or they know but they are not saying.

But, they all agree that whatever is on the ship is in breach of UN sanctions. OK, if it's not arms, what could cause a breach of UN sanctions? A couple of containers of over ripe Camembert? Used sex toys? Bacon? Well....it is the middle east.

And so, the saga continues. And I'll keep an eye on it.

Elsewhere in the world...

In Afghanistan, the NYT reports that the Taliban attacked government buildings, demonstrating that that they can move about easily and cause havoc at will. Holbrooke has a lot of work ahead of him. I don't envy him the gig.

And for sheer nuttiness...according to USA Today, there was one of those 'you gotta see it to believe it moments.' Bobby Mugabe swears in Morgan Tsvangirai as Prime Minister. No really. Kind of like the mongoose inviting the cobra to come in from the cold. I love African politics.

What Biden really said in Munich

Over the weekend, Vice President Joe Biden delivered the first substantive US foreign policy speech at the Munich Conference on Security Policy, and we didn't lose any allies. Kidding. I think while the world held its breath waiting to see what hints Biden would give of the direction of US foreign policy, the folks back in Washington held their breath, hoping that Biden wouldn't unwittingly set back US relations with the world with an off color joke or comment.

As most people who follow international relations know, the words and phrases used in a speech are chosen very deliberately. What I like to call "diplospeak." There is no off the cuff riffing here, no "hey I'm just making this up as I go along." As soon as Vice President Biden was finished, foreign ministries around the world went to work parsing each and every sentence to figure out just exactly what the Obama administration's foreign policy would be. And to save you time and effort, I have chosen a few key passages and "un-diplospeaked" them.

Biden: I come to Europe on behalf of a new administration, and an administration that's determined to set a new tone not only in Washington, but in America's relations around the world.

What he really meant: Look we know you hated the Bush/Chaney administration. Those idiots are gone. We are going to try to clean their mess up, but it's going to take some time.

Biden: In the United States -- like many of you -- we're taking aggressive action to stabilize our financial systems, to jumpstart our economy, and, hopefully, lay a new foundation for growth in the 21st century.

What he really meant: Man, our economy is in the toilet. No really. I can't tell you how bad, but trust me, I've seen the files. You wanna know how bad? I ran into Geithner the other night buying adult diapers at CVS. But take heart. We're taking the battery cables that we used to torture folks with and are using them for what they were intended -- to jumpstart our economy and get things going again.

Biden: We'll need your help. For example, we will ask others to take responsibility for some of those now in Guantanamo, as we determine to close it. Our security is shared. And so, too, I respectfully suggest, is our responsibility to defend it.

What he really meant: Look, we are going to close Guantanamo. But...there are some seriously scary dudes there. And after 6 years, they are tanned, rested and pissed off. And, like all prisons, it's been a training school. They've made connections and learned a lot of stuff. So, it's up to you. Either you take your share of them, or we turn them over to the Saudis or Yemen and if we do that, they show up in London, or Paris two weeks later with a new backpack. Get my drift?

Biden: The Iranian people are a great people; the Persian civilization is a great civilization. But Iran has acted in ways that are not conducive to peace in the region or to the prosperity of its own people.

What he really meant: Hey, you guys got an election coming in June. Take my advice, and toss that nut job you have for a President out of office. We did it. You can do it too.

Biden: It can be seen in the President's decision to name two of America's most tenacious diplomats -- Senator George Mitchell and Ambassador Richard Holbrooke -- to contend with two of the world's most urgent and vexing and complex challenges: the need for a secure, just, and lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and the imperative of stopping the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan from providing a haven for terrorists.

What he really meant: Mitchell and Holbrooke are back in the game. Let's recap. Mitchell brought peace to Ireland which makes the Israeli-Palestinian thing look like an argument at a ladies tea social. He may look like a mild mannered history professor, but don't underestimate him. As for Holbrooke, this is one seriously bad dude. Need I remind you that he explained how things worked to Milošević? I think you get my drift.

Biden: President Obama has ordered a strategic review of our policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan to make sure that our goals are clear, and that they are achievable. As we undertake that review, we seek ideas and input from you and all of our partners.

What he really meant: See my reference to backpacks above.

Biden: We continue to develop -- we will continue to develop missile defense to counter the growing Iranian capability, provided the technology is proven and it is cost-effective. We'll do so in consultation with you, our NATO allies, and with Russia.

What he really meant: Hey Putin and Medvedev. In case you guys missed it, the Iranians launched a satellite the other day, which means they can now reach Moscow. Your move.

Biden: We will not recognize any nation having a sphere of influence.

What he really meant: Yeah, I got your sphere of influence right here.

Biden: Thank you for your indulgence.

What he really meant: I don't know about the rest of you but I could use a drink. The bar is open and the US is buying the first round.

Melee in Munich?

So, this weekend at the 45th Annual Munich Security Conference is shaping up to be even more fun than the Thrilla in Manilla.

Vice President Biden is set to deliver a major foreign policy address and the world awaits with baited breath. A senior administration official says, "it will be dramatic!"

So....what constitutes dramatic?

Russia just bribed Kyrgyzstan to close the US base there. Oh, I'm sorry. How impolitic of me. The Russians gave the Kyrgyz government $2 billion in foreign aid and Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev decided to close the US air base there. No coincidence at all. Nope. Nada.

So, on the one hand Putin made nice toward the US in his remarks at Davos and on the other hand they are making things tough for us to re-supply the Afghan effort. Odd friends indeed. You get the feeling that the right hand doesn't really know what the left is doing?

Definitely good cop, bad cop with Putin and Medvedev. The only question is, how far will the bad cop go? Cuz when you're in custody with the bad cop, sometimes things get out of hand. Sometimes you get slapped around.

So how will Biden and the Obama administration respond? That, kids, is the $64,000 question. I would imagine that the Obama folks are a little bent out of shape. So do they go ahead and deploy those missiles that the Bushies were going to put into Poland and the Czech Republic? Or do they make nice and find another way into Afghanistan?

My bet is that they put the ball in Moscow's court. Call for a HUGE nuclear disarmament or....even TOTAL elimination of ALL nuclear arms. You know...go big or go home.

Naturally, our European allies are standing by us....kinda. The Baltic States are TOTALLY with us....cuz they know what the Russians can do to real estate values and relatives. But the Europeans are in the middle of winter and get their gas from Russia so they are playing it cool.

And meanwhile....in another part of town....

If you believe the report on Debka File, Iran is going into the shipping business full time. According to Debka, Ehud Barak claims that Iran is preparing to send more ships with arms to break the blockade on Gaza. More confrontations on the horizon.

Time to stock up at the liquor store.

Dr. Thomas Barnett's new book

I'm going to stray from the humor and the satire for a day and urge you to go out and buy Dr. Thomas Barnett's new book, "Great Powers: America and the World After Bush," which came out today.

For those of you unfamiliar with Dr. Barnett, he is the author of The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century, one of the best books on foreign policy written in a long time.

His books are a must read for anyone who wants to understand America's place in this modern messy world.

He also writes a blog that is wonderfully informative, very human...and he's funny too. So if you want to know more about the world you live in, read his books.

For those folks in the San Francisco Bay Area, he will be a guest on my buddy Gil Gross's radio show on KGO 810 AM on Tuesday February 10th, 2PM PST.

Tune in!

Stuff keeps on happening

OK...so the authorities in Cyprus searched the ship and reported the results to the UN according to the BBC. As for that Togo ship carrying relief supplies, activists and religious figures, they were cleared out of Cyprus and are heading for Gaza according to the International Herald Tribune.

But what the heck was on that arms ship? Why won't anybody tell? I submit that the Iranians know, the Russians know, the Syrians know, the US Navy knows because they stopped the ship. So...who is trying to protect who here? Who is possibly being kept in the dark? Just folks like us? Seems like it.

Another item to pay attention to....is the Saudi succession. King Abdullah is sick, Crown Prince Sultan has cancer and if he goes before the King, look out. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy has a great piece on it. The intrigue and back room machinations makes picking a new mob boss look like an open western style democracy.

Oh...and if things weren't bad enough in Afghanistan with the Taliban destroying a bridge that carries supplies in for NATO, the government of Kyrgyzstan got a better offer from Moscow and is closing the U. S. Manas airbase there that serves as a re-fueling and transit point for US troops in Afghanistan. It's all about Russian re-asserting its old sphere of interest. What do you think the chances are of that money from Moscow trickling down to the Kyrgyz people? Yeah. That's what I thought.

All together now.... "It's a small world after all...."