Wednesday, February 25, 2009

The Mitchell-Holbrooke E-mails

As George Mitchell and Richard Holbrooke, two of America's preeminent statesmen go off to solve the problems of Israel/Palestine and Afghanistan, The Foreign Desk has stumbled upon some of their correspondence.

Dear Richard,

Thanks for the lift. Hope you made it into Bagram safely. Man, this jet lag is killing me. To say nothing of the hangover. Remind me not to play drinking games with you again. Did you get the phone number of the flight attendant? Cheers, George


Dear George,

We got in fine. And no I didn't get her phone number. They changed crews while I was talking to The President. You would not believe the security here. Haven't met Karzai yet, but hope to see him after I get some shut eye. Gotta go, something just blew up next door. Richard


Dear Richard,

Not much progess to report. Netanyahu is walking around with his hat in his hand trying to form a government. It's not pretty. Gaza is still a mess. Man, I am too old for this. And I'd kill for a ham and cheese sandwich. George


Dear George,

Everyone is stoned here. Seriously. There is hash EVERYWHERE. No wonder nothing gets done. Karzai still avoiding me. I think I'm gonna have to put everyone, -- Pakistanis and Afghans on a plane and bring 'em to Washington. And what the hell is Dennis Ross up to? Someone tell him this is my turf. Gotta go. They're evacutaing the hotel. Richard

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

The whole world is watching

I am back from various forms of the flu. Suffice it to say, it wasn't pretty.

So what's going on around this lovely little planet we call home?

According to the BBC about 70 students at Amir Kabir University in Tehran were arrested after clashing with the authorities who were re-burying the Iraq-Iran war dead on campus. Say what? Why on campus? Are the authorities trying to send a message? "Hey....it could be you students in these graves unless you shape up?" Seems a bit heavy handed to me, but that's the Ahmadinejad way.

Trouble in Russia? The Financial Times notes that President Medvedev accused Vladimir Putin's government yesterday of failing to act quickly to combat the economic crisis. Uh oh. All is not smiles and sunshine. If these guys start going at each other, it will make the mob wars of NY in the 1970's look like an Ivy league debating match.

Which leads into today's final bit about things coming apart.

An interesting read is Niall Ferguson's piece called "Axis of Upheaval" in the March/April Foreign Policy. In a nutshell he says that the axis of evil is not the real problem. What is really going to be a major problem is the economic crisis we are going through and how this crisis will create an "axis of upheaval" or in simpler terms, the recipe for violence and strife.

He says, "...three factors made the location and timing of lethal organized violence more or less predictable in the last century. The first factor was ethnic disintegration: Violence was worst in areas of mounting ethnic tension. The second factor was economic volatility: The greater the magnitude of economic shocks, the more likely conflict was. And the third factor was empires in decline: When structures of imperial rule crumbled, battles for political power were most bloody."

And who are the players? Somalia, Mexico, Russia, Pakistan, Indonesia ... and more. Suddenly that trip to Disneyland is looking a lot more attractive.

Monday, February 16, 2009

The Wackiest Ship in the Jihad

So, that Russian ship that's been anchored off Cyprus under high security has been searched and according to the Agence France Presse the Cypriot government has declared that it is not...repeat...NOT carrying arms. And because it is NOT carrying arms, they confiscated all 90 containers.

So why did they confiscate it? Because the Cypriots, according to Reuters, said the ship was loaded with "weapon related material."

Reuters went on to add that Iranian foreign spokesman Hassan Qashqavi told reporters at a news conference, "What they initially said, that it was weaponry and so on, it is not true." Well, yeah, technically, they aren't weapons till you put them together. And according to one unnamed source, the containers were all marked, "Some Assembly Required."

In any event, wherever it was headed, it is not headed there now. However, stay tuned, because you know there is another ship on the horizon.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

About those arms.....

So it's "we said" versus "they said."

You see, there is this ship. A Russian freighter, flying a Cypriot flag, that sailed from Iran, headed for Syria. At least that is what was originally reported by CBS News.

That same CBS News report from late January, said that the ship was stopped by the US Navy, searched and released. "The United States did as much as we could do legally," (Admiral Mike) Mullen said, adding that he would like more authority to act in such cases. "We were not authorized to seize the weapons or do anything like that."

Cut to....this week, where the ship is now anchored off the port of Limassol in Cyprus under tight security. The Cypriot government has now searched the ship, and has asked the UN for guidance.

Yesterday, according to Reuters, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said there were no arms on the ship.

So you see the problem. The US Navy says there are arms on board the ship. The Israeli media says there are arms aboard the ship, the Iranians deny there are arms on the ship, the Cypriot government searched the ship but is not saying anything.

We said, they said.

The real issue is that it is time to really clamp down on arms shipments anywhere in the world. Whether real or imagined. I realized that this is a very pollyanna-ish view, but there is nothing wrong with saying that there are certain parts of the world that just don't need arms. Call me a dreamer, but it's harder to sit down and talk than it is to pull a trigger.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Meanwhile.....back in Cyprus...

So that Russian freighter supposedly carrying Iranian arms is still anchored of Cyprus under tight security. Reuters says that the Iranians deny there are arms on board. The BBC says that, "on Tuesday Cypriot Foreign Minister Marcos Kyprianou said a UN committee ruled that the Monchegorsk was in "clear" breach of UN sanctions, but he did not specify what had been found on board." OK. No one really knows. Or they know but they are not saying.

But, they all agree that whatever is on the ship is in breach of UN sanctions. OK, if it's not arms, what could cause a breach of UN sanctions? A couple of containers of over ripe Camembert? Used sex toys? Bacon? Well....it is the middle east.

And so, the saga continues. And I'll keep an eye on it.

Elsewhere in the world...

In Afghanistan, the NYT reports that the Taliban attacked government buildings, demonstrating that that they can move about easily and cause havoc at will. Holbrooke has a lot of work ahead of him. I don't envy him the gig.

And for sheer nuttiness...according to USA Today, there was one of those 'you gotta see it to believe it moments.' Bobby Mugabe swears in Morgan Tsvangirai as Prime Minister. No really. Kind of like the mongoose inviting the cobra to come in from the cold. I love African politics.

Monday, February 09, 2009

What Biden really said in Munich

Over the weekend, Vice President Joe Biden delivered the first substantive US foreign policy speech at the Munich Conference on Security Policy, and we didn't lose any allies. Kidding. I think while the world held its breath waiting to see what hints Biden would give of the direction of US foreign policy, the folks back in Washington held their breath, hoping that Biden wouldn't unwittingly set back US relations with the world with an off color joke or comment.

As most people who follow international relations know, the words and phrases used in a speech are chosen very deliberately. What I like to call "diplospeak." There is no off the cuff riffing here, no "hey I'm just making this up as I go along." As soon as Vice President Biden was finished, foreign ministries around the world went to work parsing each and every sentence to figure out just exactly what the Obama administration's foreign policy would be. And to save you time and effort, I have chosen a few key passages and "un-diplospeaked" them.

Biden: I come to Europe on behalf of a new administration, and an administration that's determined to set a new tone not only in Washington, but in America's relations around the world.

What he really meant: Look we know you hated the Bush/Chaney administration. Those idiots are gone. We are going to try to clean their mess up, but it's going to take some time.

Biden: In the United States -- like many of you -- we're taking aggressive action to stabilize our financial systems, to jumpstart our economy, and, hopefully, lay a new foundation for growth in the 21st century.

What he really meant
: Man, our economy is in the toilet. No really. I can't tell you how bad, but trust me, I've seen the files. You wanna know how bad? I ran into Geithner the other night buying adult diapers at CVS. But take heart. We're taking the battery cables that we used to torture folks with and are using them for what they were intended -- to jumpstart our economy and get things going again.

Biden: We'll need your help. For example, we will ask others to take responsibility for some of those now in Guantanamo, as we determine to close it. Our security is shared. And so, too, I respectfully suggest, is our responsibility to defend it.

What he really meant: Look, we are going to close Guantanamo. But...there are some seriously scary dudes there. And after 6 years, they are tanned, rested and pissed off. And, like all prisons, it's been a training school. They've made connections and learned a lot of stuff. So, it's up to you. Either you take your share of them, or we turn them over to the Saudis or Yemen and if we do that, they show up in London, or Paris two weeks later with a new backpack. Get my drift?

Biden: The Iranian people are a great people; the Persian civilization is a great civilization. But Iran has acted in ways that are not conducive to peace in the region or to the prosperity of its own people.

What he really meant: Hey, you guys got an election coming in June. Take my advice, and toss that nut job you have for a President out of office. We did it. You can do it too.

Biden: It can be seen in the President's decision to name two of America's most tenacious diplomats -- Senator George Mitchell and Ambassador Richard Holbrooke -- to contend with two of the world's most urgent and vexing and complex challenges: the need for a secure, just, and lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and the imperative of stopping the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan from providing a haven for terrorists.

What he really meant
: Mitchell and Holbrooke are back in the game. Let's recap. Mitchell brought peace to Ireland which makes the Israeli-Palestinian thing look like an argument at a ladies tea social. He may look like a mild mannered history professor, but don't underestimate him. As for Holbrooke, this is one seriously bad dude. Need I remind you that he explained how things worked to Milošević? I think you get my drift.

Biden: President Obama has ordered a strategic review of our policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan to make sure that our goals are clear, and that they are achievable. As we undertake that review, we seek ideas and input from you and all of our partners.

What he really meant
: See my reference to backpacks above.

Biden
: We continue to develop -- we will continue to develop missile defense to counter the growing Iranian capability, provided the technology is proven and it is cost-effective. We'll do so in consultation with you, our NATO allies, and with Russia.

What he really meant
: Hey Putin and Medvedev. In case you guys missed it, the Iranians launched a satellite the other day, which means they can now reach Moscow. Your move.

Biden
: We will not recognize any nation having a sphere of influence.

What he really meant
: Yeah, I got your sphere of influence right here.

Biden: Thank you for your indulgence.

What he really meant
: I don't know about the rest of you but I could use a drink. The bar is open and the US is buying the first round.

Friday, February 06, 2009

Melee in Munich?

So, this weekend at the 45th Annual Munich Security Conference is shaping up to be even more fun than the Thrilla in Manilla.

Vice President Biden is set to deliver a major foreign policy address and the world awaits with baited breath. A senior administration official says, "it will be dramatic!"

So....what constitutes dramatic?

Russia just bribed Kyrgyzstan to close the US base there. Oh, I'm sorry. How impolitic of me. The Russians gave the Kyrgyz government $2 billion in foreign aid and Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev decided to close the US air base there. No coincidence at all. Nope. Nada.

So, on the one hand Putin made nice toward the US in his remarks at Davos and on the other hand they are making things tough for us to re-supply the Afghan effort. Odd friends indeed. You get the feeling that the right hand doesn't really know what the left is doing?

Definitely good cop, bad cop with Putin and Medvedev. The only question is, how far will the bad cop go? Cuz when you're in custody with the bad cop, sometimes things get out of hand. Sometimes you get slapped around.

So how will Biden and the Obama administration respond? That, kids, is the $64,000 question. I would imagine that the Obama folks are a little bent out of shape. So do they go ahead and deploy those missiles that the Bushies were going to put into Poland and the Czech Republic? Or do they make nice and find another way into Afghanistan?

My bet is that they put the ball in Moscow's court. Call for a HUGE nuclear disarmament or....even TOTAL elimination of ALL nuclear arms. You know...go big or go home.

Naturally, our European allies are standing by us....kinda. The Baltic States are TOTALLY with us....cuz they know what the Russians can do to real estate values and relatives. But the Europeans are in the middle of winter and get their gas from Russia so they are playing it cool.

And meanwhile....in another part of town....

If you believe the report on Debka File, Iran is going into the shipping business full time. According to Debka, Ehud Barak claims that Iran is preparing to send more ships with arms to break the blockade on Gaza. More confrontations on the horizon.

Time to stock up at the liquor store.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

Dr. Thomas Barnett's new book

I'm going to stray from the humor and the satire for a day and urge you to go out and buy Dr. Thomas Barnett's new book, "Great Powers: America and the World After Bush," which came out today.

For those of you unfamiliar with Dr. Barnett, he is the author of The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century, one of the best books on foreign policy written in a long time.

His books are a must read for anyone who wants to understand America's place in this modern messy world.

He also writes a blog that is wonderfully informative, very human...and he's funny too. So if you want to know more about the world you live in, read his books.

For those folks in the San Francisco Bay Area, he will be a guest on my buddy Gil Gross's radio show on KGO 810 AM on Tuesday February 10th, 2PM PST.

Tune in!

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Stuff keeps on happening

OK...so the authorities in Cyprus searched the ship and reported the results to the UN according to the BBC. As for that Togo ship carrying relief supplies, activists and religious figures, they were cleared out of Cyprus and are heading for Gaza according to the International Herald Tribune.

But what the heck was on that arms ship? Why won't anybody tell? I submit that the Iranians know, the Russians know, the Syrians know, the US Navy knows because they stopped the ship. So...who is trying to protect who here? Who is possibly being kept in the dark? Just folks like us? Seems like it.

Another item to pay attention to....is the Saudi succession. King Abdullah is sick, Crown Prince Sultan has cancer and if he goes before the King, look out. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy has a great piece on it. The intrigue and back room machinations makes picking a new mob boss look like an open western style democracy.

Oh...and if things weren't bad enough in Afghanistan with the Taliban destroying a bridge that carries supplies in for NATO, the government of Kyrgyzstan got a better offer from Moscow and is closing the U. S. Manas airbase there that serves as a re-fueling and transit point for US troops in Afghanistan. It's all about Russian re-asserting its old sphere of interest. What do you think the chances are of that money from Moscow trickling down to the Kyrgyz people? Yeah. That's what I thought.

All together now.... "It's a small world after all...."

Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Cyprus is hopping!

So...the suspected arms ship is still tied up off Limassol in Cyprus. According to the Jerusalem Post, the Israeli government has asked the US and EU navies to "change the mandate of their fleets operating in the Red Sea and Mediterranean to allow them to board and detain vessels shipping weapons to Hamas in the Gaza Strip."

The US Navy stopped a ship last week and inspected it, but let it continue because they didn't have legal reasons to confiscate the weapons. According to Reuters,
"the officials declined to say what kind of weapons were found or how many. They also would not be specific about where or when the incident occurred."

Well gee guys....why NOT say what was on the ship? It's not like no one knows you checked it out. What possible reason do you have for not telling the world? Come on...inquiring minds want to know.

Like I said, this is really juicy stuff.

And according to the Middle East Times, the ship is still there and man oh man...you know the folks in the Cyprus government really wish this whole thing would disappear. They haven't said anything, and for that matter, a whole lot of folks aren't saying anything.

But hold on....now, another incident is brewing. According to AFP religious figures and activists sailed from Tripoli in Lebanon aboard a Togolese ship heading for Gaza carrying aid. They are going to Cyprus to have the ship searched first and then will continue on.

I'm telling you...it's a real international fun fest with players from Iran, Togo, Russia, the US, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus...

And amazingly, most of the world's media is doing a pretty good job of ignoring it. Even the American media is silent. Oh...wait a minute, that's right. We're still recovering from our collective Super Bowl coma. And what makes the news? Denny's free breakfast giveaway. Well...I suppose its newsworthy. Those breakfasts can be lethal too. And so it goes.

Stay tuned kids...

Sunday, February 01, 2009

There's never a pirate around when you need one

So there is this ship that is causing a lot of headaches in the Middle East. According to reports, it's a Russian cargo ship, flying a Cyprus flag, carrying Iranian arms.

Stay with me, because this is really juicy international relations stuff.

Right now, the Cypriots have detained the ship near Limassol, the port in Cyprus, per a request from the United States.

Now the Cypriots, which are currently ruled by the Communists, are searching the ship and they're doing this because they want better relations with the United States. And there is a UN resolution that prohibits arms trafficking in the area.

So what's on the ship?

According to Israel's Ha'aretz there are Iranian arms on board destined for Hamas and Gaza. Other reports say the arms are going to Syria. The Russians claim it's just cargo.

One thing that IS certain is that everyone wishes the whole situation would disappear.

Oh...we'll be following this very closely. This could turn into the first big international incident for the Obama administration.

Who wants to start a pool that the ship never makes it any further? Any takers on an "accidental sinking?"

Whaaaat? Hey, stuff happens.